Unemployment Rising as Job Ads Fall

ANZ Bank has published its April review of job ads in Australia’s major newspapers and on the internet.

Advertised Job Highlights

• Newspaper job ads averaged 8,200 per week, down from 13,900 12 months ago.
• Internet job ads averaged 128,567 per week, down from over 260,000 12 months ago.
• The total average number of job ads in April was 136,770, down from 274,000 a year ago.
• Job ad levels are now consistent with unemployment rising in the coming year.
• Job ads on the internet and in newspapers fell by 7.5% in April, taking the annual fall to 49.9%.

Commenting on the figures, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Warren Hogan, said:

“There can be little doubt that these numbers are consistent with the forecast of an unemployment rate rising above 7 percent in the next 12 to 18 months and most likely peaking at a rate above 8 percent in this current cycle.

“ANZ Economics and Markets Research is forecasting unemployment to peak at around 8.25 percent in 2010. This is broadly in line with most private sector forecasters but above the Government’s February forecast of 7 percent for June 2010.

“Most of the 1.7 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate thus far has been due to labour force growth and rising participation, rather than falling far employment. However, the ongoing weakness in job ads suggests that falling employment levels will be the key driver of rising unemployment over the year ahead.”