Job Opportunities in Australia Fall at Fastest Rate in 30 Years

The number of jobs advertised in Australia’s major newspapers and on the web fell by 8.6% in November to average 211,199 per week. This followed a fall of 5.9% in October.

Figures from the ANZ bank suggest the total number of job ads was 18.6% lower than at the same time last year. Newspaper ads were particularly badly hurt by the deteriorating economy, falling 42.7 percent in the last year.

The large fall in newspaper job ads in November was Australia-wide. The largest falls were in the Northern Territory (-17.4%), Queensland (-16.6%), Western Australia (-14.9%), South Australia (-14.2%) and Victoria (-12.6). There were also large falls in Tasmania (-9.5%), and New South Wales (-8.0%). The fall in the ACT (-2.5%) was more modest.

Warren Hogan, Head of Economics at the ANZ bank commented: “As a leading indicator of economic conditions in Australia, the latest job advertisements data suggest the global financial crisis has had a substantial impact on the Australian economy in the December quarter. Internet job advertisements are now at the lowest level since February 2007. Internet job advertising has been in decline since May of this year, having fallen by over 20% in the past six months.

“Annual growth in newspaper ads is now the weakest since 1991, the last time the economy experienced recession. Annual growth in job ads during the recessions of 1982 and 1991 fell to around -50%, so annual growth as at November 2008 remains above those past recession points.”

“Over the last two months, newspaper job advertising has declined by the most in the 30-year history of the survey. This tells us that hiring intentions have been heavily impacted by the latest wave of uncertainty and financial distress caused by the global financial crisis.

“There is a reliable relationship between newspaper job advertisements and employment over the following six months. If the recent weakness in job ads is sustained, it would be consistent with a contraction in total employment over the first six months of 2009. This of course would result in a much more rapid rise in the unemployment rate than we are currently forecasting. We expect the next official employment numbers, to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, to confirm the deterioration in labour market conditions in Australia as a result of the global financial crisis. ANZ is forecasting a 22,000 decline in total employment in the month of November.”

“The RBA and the Government have responding quickly and aggressively to emerging downside risks to the Australian economy, with unprecedented easing of both monetary and fiscal policy in recent months. The fact that both the Government and the RBA have been more aggressive and importantly, more pre-emptive, in their policy adjustments in the current cycle than in any past economic cycle, gives us some reason to believe the slowing in the economy can be contained and a severe recession avoided. ANZ is forecasting continued economic growth in Australia in 2009.”