Jobs Fall Again but Still Plentiful, Grab One While You Can

ANZ has published its monthly review of jobs advertised in Australia’s major newspapers and on the internet.

• The number of jobs advertised, which was already falling, has gone into a steeper decline, falling by 9.7% in December 2008.
• This follows falls of 8.6% in November and 5.9% in October.
• The weekly average number of jobs advertised in December was still an apparently healthy 190,661 but is down from over 270,000 a year ago.
• Newspaper job advertisements are now 51.8% lower than a year ago.
• The number of internet job advertisements averaged 180,535 per week, compared with over 250,000 12 months ago.

Commenting on the figures, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Warren Hogan, said:

“The rate of decline in job advertising intensified in the month of December, providing further evidence that the demand for new labour across the Australian economy is now at recession levels.”

“This is the weakest annual rate of growth in newspaper job advertising since December 1982, including the recession of 1991.”

“Internet job ads are now 28.1% below year ago levels, also the weakest outcome since the survey began in 1998.”

“A 50% decline in newspaper job advertising in a year is historically consistent with economic recession within the next nine months and a rise in the unemployment rate over the following years.”

“What these numbers do not tell us is the likely extent of labour shedding across corporate Australia, which remains in a relative strong financial position compared to the periods prior to previous recessions.”

“ANZ is forecasting the unemployment rate to rise to 6% in 2009, up from the current rate of 4.4%. The risk to this forecast remains skewed towards a worse outcome, particularly if labour shedding or corporate failures intensify. In any event, the latest job advertising results indicate that the Government unemployment forecast of 5% by June 2009 followed by continued modest employment growth in 2009/10 is too optimistic.”